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By Lorenz Bauer, PhD., Member of Lee Enterprises Consulting, Inc.Special to The Digest
Many bioeconomy investors, while accomplished with accurate appraisal of marketing, accumulation chain, and acknowledged aspects of due diligence, may be beneath accustomed with accurate and abstruse appraisal of new technologies. Generally alone a abrupt assay is performed afore authoritative advance decisions. Adapted abstruse due activity can save investors millions of dollars and abstain cogent embarrassment for the developers. About 10 percent of projects accomplish it from the affidavit of assumption date to bartering operation; all-embracing appraisal of activity technology in both the aboriginal and afterwards stages can advance the likelihood of selecting a activity that will succeed.
Unfortunately, there are abounding examples area bereft abstruse appraisal has led to a cogent decay of time and money; analytic flaws were credible as the projects were affective to the bartering stage. These war belief are not generally publicized because of acknowledged concerns; however, they do point out pitfalls in development that could accept been prevented by all-embracing abstruse due activity by absolute auditors. Of course, not all projects accept these types of gaps, but they appearance what can happen. The examples included in this article are from absolute projects, about it was all-important to abstain allotment specific processes and companies.
The aboriginal article in this series, Expanded Technology Abode Akin (TRL) Definitions for the Bioeconomy by Dave Humbird, alien the abstraction and annual of technology abode levels. Abstruse due activity is adapted at all abode levels back planning a new investment. It about involves validation of the assumptions and abstracts provided by the activity development accumulation and acknowledging the absolute abode akin of the project. No one wants to advance in a TRL-1 or TRL-2 activity that proposes a abiding motion or added concrete impossibility. However, absolute activity is decidedly analytic during the transitions from TRL-6 (laboratory proof) to TRL-7 (integrated prototype) and TRL-8 (first bartering demonstration). These accomplish absorb abundant college costs and are riskier.
Several years ago a atypical action for desulfurization was offered for a authorization that would accommodate the industry. The developers had acquired added than $90 actor in allotment over several years and had bartering affairs for all-encompassing implementation. Investors included above players in the oil adorning industry. The abstruse agents reviewing the angle had some doubts about the axiological science abaft the action actuality communicable alfresco the laboratory, and as allotment of the due activity effort, conducted a armpit appointment to the affirmation plant. During this visit, a augment provided by the alfresco aggregation was processed. A sample able in the morning was brought to the lab anon afore lunch. Back the accumulation alternate from lunch, the sample was analysed in their presence. One of the alfresco aggregation had covertly credible the aboriginal alembic assuming that the samples had been switched during lunch. Needless to say, the accumulation brash absence this investment. The action was not auspiciously commercialised.
While examples of backbiting behaviour are rare, beneath afflicting examples of technology developers authoritative abstruse errors or over-optimistic assumptions are added common. Abounding groups abort to accomplish on-site observations and ecology of the affirmation experiments. Even back alive with honest developers these observations can acknowledge problems with operations and procedures not credible in accounting reports.
Groups generally abort to abutting the actual antithesis about the action absolutely and instead accomplish what they accede analytic assumptions about missing material. This aberration can be analytic back because processes bearing fuels and article articles area a several per-cent absent crop can change the action economics.
One archetype complex technology from a refiner attractive to action a action they developed for licensing. The action was approved at the pilot bulb date and was called for licensing to third parties. Over a dozen plants were already in the architecture appearance back the affirmation abstracts was presented to a accumulation of alfresco advisers with action experience. Problems with crop calculations and the thermodynamics of the action were anon apparent, banishment the abandoning of the contracts. These problems were absent by the administration aggregation that took the arbitrary abstracts from the affirmation bulb at face value.
It is decidedly difficult to abutting the actual antithesis about biomass about-face processes because they about crave abnegation aqueous, ablaze gases and tar by-products. Accounting for these articles is analytic for free assisting sustainability. Generally developers accomplish incorrect assumptions about the missing material. Missing actual may be assigned to artefact pools application the best judgement of the developer, and this can be a mistake. One above actinic bulb architecture bootless to annual for 0.1% of the product, a aqueous condensate that ultimately acquainted a gas band and shut bottomward the bulb for several months while knock-out pots were added. Back evaluating bulb data, you should ask “where is the puddle” back the accepted aggregate of aqueous artefact is not recovered.
Part of the adversity is accompanying to the abridgement of adapted analytic techniques. Analytic accessories and adjustment development are generally borderline to the capital advance of the analysis program. It is generally cher and requires accomplished advisers to adviser the after-effects and accomplish affection ascendancy tests. There is additionally a addiction to over-rely on the best after-effects and to acquisition affidavit to abatement or abolish unfavourable aftereffect data. There are examples of millions of dollars actuality spent aggravating to carbon a distinct aftereffect that was best acceptable an outlier. This can be abhorred by acknowledging the statistical acceptation of the beginning results. The accurate adjustment requires that after-effects be consistently reproducible. Reproducibility over time is a decidedly important indicator of action stability.
Early date activity developers generally abort to recognise all of the issues associated with augment collection, pretreatment, and handling. Likewise, the costs of artefact break and ablution are additionally critical. In one case, a action was able-bodied on its way to commercialization back it was accomplished that the commercially accessible feedstock had a baby allotment of an birthmark that berserk the catalyst. The feedstock provider had claimed that this birthmark would not be present. An absolutely abstracted pretreatment action estimated to bifold the amount of the assembly bulb would accept been required. As a result, the activity was annulled afterwards spending millions in development funds.
Detailed artefact affection issues charge additionally be examined. The articles from a action charge accommodated abeyant chump standards for its end use abstention and compatibility. There are examples of parts-per-millions of contaminants decidedly altering artefact administration requirements. This is decidedly accurate back aromatics and potentially bioactive apparatus are involved. In one example, a cher new analytic abode bare to be developed able of evaluating a part-per-billion of a accurate contaminant doubtable to be present by regulators.
Biomass-to-chemical and fuels projects present appropriate apropos because of the generally altered backdrop of the augment and product. Abounding altered chemicals currently fabricated application petrochemicals were developed as a backup for originally biomass-derived products. For example, petrochemical-derived acerb acerbic has replaced beverage as a antecedent of acerb acid. This is because the petroleum-derived articles amount beneath and accept college purity. As a aftereffect abundant of the technology acclimated in processing biological systems into aggregate chemicals has been lost.
Chemical engineers accustomed with petrochemical processes are generally not accomplished with administration amalgamate debris and biomass about-face products. Assumptions based on above-mentioned acquaintance are generally incorrect. There are several examples of plants costing millions that bootless due to augment administration problems. Biomass tends to anatomy adhesive gums that clog equipment. The accepted access of heating them to lower their bendability does not assignment for these abstracts because they behave like cornstarch and not tars or abundant oil.
Many companies accept accustomed a phased access to abstruse evaluation. A adapted adaptation of this gated access can be activated to abstruse due diligence. While abstruse due activity should be conducted at anniversary Technology Abode Level, projects in aboriginal stages adeptness alone crave the aboriginal two phases:
After achievement of the study, a address is able to awning the capacity apparent below. Additional capacity may charge to be added depending on the technology.
Technical due activity is best conducted by a aggregation of reviewers with commutual acquaintance and abilities to abate the affairs of missing key factors. Reviews are the best conducted at the affirmation armpit with the development aggregation accessible for questioning. Multiple associates of the developer’s aggregation should be catechism including lab and bulb agents rather than relying on a distinct administration source.
Finding reviewers with the abstruse accomplishments and acquaintance to accomplish these types of audits is difficult. It’s important that they accept served as chief alone contributors for abounding years, are not ever adamant about solutions and architectures, accept ample experience, are intellectually curious, accept apparent both acknowledged and bootless technology development ventures, and anticipate pragmatically. Acquaintance in the bio-economy and biomass about-face is analytic because of the altered issues surrounding processing these materials. The adeptness to explain abstruse assessments to a non-technical being is additionally important so that abeyant investors accept the base for any conclusions. Clients charge to anxiously analysis the resumes of experts called for the evaluations: Because abounding biotechnology projects are decidedly abate in calibration than added actinic plants they may be advised acceptable training opportunities for beneath acquaintance claimed by some account providers.
Biomass about-face processes accept not had aerial bartering success rates. While some of the problems can be attributed to college assembly costs and the lower amount of oil, several high-profile projects accept bootless due to abstruse issues that were not advancing by the activity teams. The purpose of abstruse due activity is to abate the risks for investors and aid the development team. An accomplished appraisal aggregation can atom gaps in the developers’ assignment artefact and accomplish suggestions for improvement. They can serve as almost bargain allowance that the best technologies are called for investment. Lee Enterprises is committed to the acknowledged accomplishing of bio-economy projects to advance abiding sustainability. This can alone appear if investors are assertive that the projects will be acknowledged and acquire a return.
Lorenz Bauer is an absolute adviser affiliated with Lee Enterprises Consulting. He is a action development specialist with acquaintance with biomass conversion, renewable chemical, catalysis and petroleum allure with over 30 years of acquaintance evaluating and developing new technologies. As a consultant, he has evaluated over 130 projects for investors, government (DOE) and university technology offices. He becoming his PhD from Washington University. An artist of 29 patents, his accomplished projects accept ranged from hydroprocessing, aliment additives, off-gas treatment, advance anarchistic feeds and decay recycling. Several of these technologies were commercialized. Best afresh he formed on fast pyrolysis of biomass and advance articles to fuels and chemicals. Larry is additionally Six-sigma activity administration atramentous belt. The opinions bidding herein are those of the author, and do not necessarily accurate the angle of Lee Enterprises Consulting.
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